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April 24 2013

The confidence we had in [our predictions] was not affected by a statistical fact we knew to be true — that our predictions were unrelated to the truth. ...

Facts that challenge basic assumptions — and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem — are simply not absorbed. ... People are often blind to their own blindness. ...

To know whether you can trust a particular intuitive judgment, there are two questions you should ask:
1. Is the environment in which the judgment is made sufficiently regular to enable predictions from the available evidence?
2. Do the professionals have an adequate opportunity to learn the cues and the regularities? [i.e. a lot of practice making predictions, and a tight feedback loop to learn their accuracy.]
Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence - NYTimes.com
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